Kuhn’s Caret for predictive modeling
“Predictive Modeling is the process of creating a model whose primary goal is to achieve high levels of accuracy. In other words, a situation where we are concerned with making the best possible prediction on an individual data instance.”
Deep dive on manufactured housing
Four ways financing differs for manufactured housing:
- The market is served by a small group of specialized lenders
- The average loan size is small
- Refinancing is rare and is usually done by general lenders
- Cash is king, particularly for used units
“First, songs that sound too similar to the competition are going to have a more difficult time attracting and holding audience attention. Second, and most important, the characteristics of contemporaneous songs produced by other artists will have a significant impact on that song’s success. Content and context matter. Because a song’s reception is partially contingent on how differentiated it is from its peers, and artists cannot precisely forecast or control which songs are released concurrently with their own, the crafting of a hit song should be more art than science.”
Evaluating the 2018 FIFA World Forecast
“It turns out that in the latter two groups the average predicted probabilities match the actual observed proportions quite well. Only in the “almost even” group, the stronger teams won slightly more often than expected.”
“Having the index convey information is like having the lamp hang from the wire. You don’t want to use an electrical connection as a mechanical connection.”